More people tuned in to watch Hillary Clinton debate Donald Trump than any other televised presidential debate. No matter who you think won the night, everyone can agree it was 90 minutes worth discussing — from Trump’s characteristic bravado and populist appeal, to Clinton’s well-rehearsed sound bites and unwavering cool.
At Edelman, we convened our top political experts—Republican Steve Schmidt and Democrat Bob Shrum — for an exclusive conversation with our global communications marketing clients to discuss what we can expect from the candidates on critical issues from now until election day, and what companies can do to prepare for a new Administration. Insights and excerpts from this conversation follow.
Hillary Clinton won the debate (but don’t count Trump out)
Earlier this year, Trump boasted to a wide field of GOP candidates about his ability to beat Clinton in the debates. Yet given the chance Monday, most pundits on both sides of the aisle agreed Trump appeared unprepared to stand on a presidential debate stage for 90 minutes.
That said, voters who went into the debate supporting Trump will likely still back him, and those supporting Clinton are now even more excited to be “with her.” But what will be interesting to watch is how undecided voters — especially Republicans with deep qualms about a Trump presidency and who might lean towards Gary Johnson — react to the debate and move towards the Clinton camp.
Trump did well in his initial arguments on trade deals, which have become anathema in U.S. politics. To a public where two-thirds welcome a new direction for the country, he positioned himself as the “change” candidate, painted Clinton as the status quo, and put her on the defensive. This will benefit him in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan (states he was careful to name repeatedly).
But it was clear that any gains made during this opening salvo were soon lost, as Hillary proceeded to bait him into trap after trap. Invoking personal references to his father, finances and company, she was able to provoke him to overreact and go off script.
On the issues, Clinton was most on her heels when Trump was discussing the economy and trade. It’s a topic where Trump’s populist, anti-free trade message resonates with white, blue collar voters, but his challenge will be finding ways to grow support beyond his base to the suburban independent and college-educated voters he needs to win.
An issue area where Clinton excelled was foreign policy. She was detailed and nuanced, and her preparation and experience showed. Trump’s assertions that NATO is useless or his segue from discussing nuclear weapons to commentary on Rosie O’Donnell could unsettle foreign policy and GOP heavyweights, leading them to endorse Clinton in the weeks ahead.
But what’s in it for me?
To be sure, a good number of the more than 84 million people who tuned in Monday night were doing so to simply take in the spectacle. However, there’s more we can learn from the debate than simply who won or lost, including:
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Prepare, prepare, prepare. It cannot be overstated: Whether for an interview, salon, or any other situation where public speaking is required, a lack of planning is a recipe for failure.
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Never underestimate the sound bite. A well-timed line (organic or not) has the ability to resonate more than an entire argument. Part of what led many to feel Clinton won was her memorable sound bites on Trump’s taxes, his treatment of a former Miss Universe, and her preparation for the Presidency.
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Trust is collapsing. We’re seeing a global collapse of trust in government and other major institutions, which has led to a chasm between elites and the public (and the populism that has fueled Trump’s rise). No longer are companies given the benefit of the doubt, nor can they wait to communicate or build trust; they must do so now and explain their value to the community if they want to insulate themselves against reputational issues that may arise.
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So has long-standing, bipartisan consensus for international trade. We’ve also seen a degradation in the support for trade deals by people who feel betrayed by them, especially in states like Pennsylvania and Ohio—as Trump mentioned repeatedly. This means that it’s going to take a long time and serious investment by companies and associations to try and persuade political leaders to support similar deals, and that any mention of these deals in the short-term will be toxic.
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No companies are immune. In this election, no company is safe from being pulled into the political discourse—especially those in the energy, pharmaceutical and manufacturing sectors. For those who are, it’s important to defend oneself with a tone that is positive and definitive (Ford and Skittles* have done this well). Equally important, is avoiding accidentally entering these discussions in the first place.
One down, two to go
With two debates remaining, the questions become, how will Trump prepare differently and will he sharpen his focus on the issues that will bring the votes he needs, or will he double down on the approach that’s propelled him this far? And will Clinton’s performance Monday translate in the polls?
Rob Rehg is a regional president in Washington D.C.
*Edelman client