The House and Senate have turned to a Democratic majority, a fundamental shift from only two years ago when President Trump swept back into office. Voters responded to the high cost of living, the risk of job loss to AI and messy geopolitics. They voted against incumbents and for change. Here are a few observations for communicators:
- Message Discipline Works — The Democrats stayed on message. They focused on the cost of gasoline, the high prices at the grocery store, and the unnecessary war in Iran. They stayed away from abolishing ICE and transgender rights. Meanwhile the Republicans were trying to fight back the inflation argument by saying the Democrats were socialists and taking the country too far to the left.
- Massive Advertising Buys Failed — Look at Texas, where the Republican candidate received hundreds of millions of dollars only to fall short. Voters reached a saturation point where they turned off mentally on the candidate’s campaign.
- Negative Ads Work When Substantive — Both Democrats and Republicans hammered relentlessly on data centers, which became the symbol of a tech industry operating beyond the control of government. The Republican ad in the Ohio Governor’s race was an insensitive intrusion into a family feud that cascaded into a national embarrassment.
- Need a Competitor — Democrats were able to focus on President Trump. Meanwhile the President hit everyone from Governor Gavin Newsom to Abdul El-Sayed, the newly elected Senator from Michigan, but the attacks were diffuse and ineffective. The reality of a headless Democratic party turned into a substantial advantage.
- Practical and Practiced — Two of my long-time friends, Governor Ned Lamont of Connecticut and Senator Mark Warner from Virginia won their reelection bids based on achievements to date and a clear agenda for the next term. They both worked hard at the retail level, crisscrossing their states, shaking hands at factory gates, doing the breakfasts at the VFW, showing that they had the energy to deliver on their promises. They asked for the order in their media buys and through their actions.
- Trust Depends on Economic Conditions — Our January Trust Barometer revealed a 29-point trust gap between high- and low-income respondents in the U.S., the largest among the 28 countries surveyed. Economic pessimism erodes trust, and we saw that play out in this election.
The instinct in the wake of the U.S. election might be to reopen the playbook of three years ago, to push the executive suite to lead on societal issues. That would be a profound mistake because there will be a sorting out in the choppy period of contention between Executive and Legislative branches. Meanwhile key European markets are going in the opposite direction, with the election of Marine Le Pen a near certainty in France because of the recent spate of riots. There will undoubtedly be Congressional hearings in the U.S. on law firms that complied with the Administration’s demand for compensatory pro bono work for conservative causes.
Chief executives will need to balance business pressures around AI, supply chains, rising costs and workforce reskilling with growing political and regulatory demands. They must also recognize the economic anxiety shaping employee and consumer expectations. Our Edelman Trust Barometer research shows that employees are losing confidence in leaders as truthful messengers of change. This is a moment to lead through action. Business can remain the most trusted institution by delivering tangible value for employees, customers and communities while demonstrating that it can be both competent and ethical.
Richard Edelman is CEO.