As eagerly as some await an end-of-December holiday break, others are looking right past the new year to the 36th annual JP Morgan Healthcare Conference (JPM), the pharma, biotech, life sciences, systems and all-other-things-healthcare con-fab. While occasionally a venue for breaking news, the conference, in early January, remains the epicenter of industry prognostication for the next 12 months.
Here are some bets:
IPOs: The largest IPO in the biotech sector was announced the first week of December, with the Denali Therapeutics $250 million raise to push drugs for Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s disease through early clinical development. Expect debate to explore whether this is a building trend after a somewhat lackluster IPO year or recognition primarily of the strength of the Denali leadership team and their science.
Therapeutic area anxiety and excitement:
- Immuno-oncology and combinations: Concern about the overwhelming number of trials in oncology is just one of the challenges facing a therapeutic area in which combinations continue to be the key to success.
- Cell and gene therapies: The introduction of CAR-T and the approval of the first gene therapy for blindness are big landmarks for this dynamic area. FDA guidance on its approach to regenerative medicine defines the regulatory path forward, adding some clarity for those in development.
- Neuroscience and the looming global Alzheimer’s crisis: Academic pursuits and government investments addressing many aspects of Alzheimer’s disease are some of the fuel bolstering continued pharma, biotech and life science investment in neuroscience.
Tax relief? Progress on U.S. tax reform potentially coinciding with JPM will make that possible catalyst moment an area of attention when predicting how the industry will fare and invest. The impact of the repatriation of funds by large U.S. companies may fuel more deals.
Deals and partnerships: Novel collaborations among industry, the academic sector and other players in the biopharma ecosystem, as well as technology, may also get some attention as approaches to discovery and innovation continue to diversify. The possible CVS*/Aetna tie-up will undoubtedly lead to speculation about other consolidation on the payer and system side. Consolidation on the pharma side is a perennial consideration.
New tech plays: 2017 was a record year for early stage digital health funding, and United Healthcare and Apple made big moves. Only time will tell when the tech transformation of healthcare brings other tech giants meaningfully into the category, beneficially introducing disruption to all parts of the healthcare delivery and innovation ecosystems in the search for cost efficiencies with better outcomes. Speculation about Amazon stepping into the pharmacy world introduces many potential dimensions of disruption.
Drug pricing and value: Examination of drug pricing will certainly continue in 2018. From media attention examining pricing of formerly generic products to the cost for gene therapy treatingan inherited retinal disease newly approved in December, expect JPM coverage to also touch on the topic.
Lynn Hanessian is client strategist, Health, Chicago.
*Edelman client